Description

This analysis provides a forecast of RON14101 prices using a Seasonal ARIMA model with Box-Cox transformation. The forecast includes different scenarios:

The confidence levels used are 68%, 95%, and 99.7%, which means there is a corresponding probability that the actual price will fall within the Bear and Bull case range for each confidence level.

The purpose of this model is to help investors understand potential future price movements and make informed decisions based on different market scenarios.

Bear_0.997 Bear_0.95 Bear_0.68 Base Bull_0.68 Bull_0.95 Bull_0.997
2025-10-12 0.299273 0.338629 0.381320 0.431088 0.487541 0.549619 0.623107
2025-10-19 0.240286 0.292121 0.352565 0.428330 0.520885 0.630438 0.770206
2025-10-26 0.201124 0.260783 0.335022 0.434376 0.564175 0.728434 0.952809
2025-11-02 0.161714 0.222404 0.302553 0.416467 0.574786 0.787906 1.098071
2025-11-09 0.129726 0.188361 0.270166 0.393094 0.574044 0.832048 1.230444
2025-11-16 0.108584 0.165848 0.249938 0.383067 0.589892 0.901197 1.409556
2025-11-23 0.091532 0.146538 0.231259 0.372086 0.602195 0.966597 1.593841
2025-11-30 0.081643 0.136661 0.225318 0.379672 0.644312 1.084222 1.880610
2025-12-07 0.069449 0.121121 0.207932 0.365688 0.648491 1.140258 2.073357
2025-12-14 0.060607 0.109885 0.196006 0.359004 0.663857 1.217216 2.315398
2025-12-21 0.053218 0.100086 0.185104 0.352326 0.677898 1.293455 2.568432
2025-12-28 0.049016 0.095498 0.182905 0.361347 0.722569 1.433117 2.967418
2026-01-04 0.043868 0.088536 0.175607 0.360120 0.748525 1.543572 3.333910
2026-01-11 0.039874 0.083277 0.170890 0.363416 0.784440 1.680437 3.782749
2026-01-18 0.036932 0.079743 0.169150 0.372702 0.834735 1.856154 4.351368
2026-01-25 0.032475 0.072322 0.158215 0.360334 0.835361 1.923580 4.684439
2026-02-01 0.028181 0.064631 0.145599 0.342214 0.819891 1.952037 4.930192
2026-02-08 0.025242 0.059585 0.138159 0.334959 0.828985 2.039866 5.341281
2026-02-15 0.022587 0.054814 0.130670 0.326412 0.833525 2.117449 5.741453
2026-02-22 0.021202 0.052902 0.129674 0.333806 0.879720 2.307820 6.482441
2026-03-01 0.018903 0.048387 0.121694 0.322084 0.873965 2.362064 6.855777
2026-03-08 0.017191 0.045125 0.116394 0.316598 0.884172 2.461051 7.378480
2026-03-15 0.015661 0.042122 0.111342 0.310999 0.893163 2.558293 7.916133